Mon, Nov 6 2023, 4:51 PM
Bonds Feeling Defensive Ahead of Auctions?
The title of today's recap gets a question mark because it's fair...
Mon, Nov 6 2023, 11:13 AM
Bonds are starting the new week in slightly weaker territory. There are not compelling motivations for the move in terms of data, events, or headline...
Fri, Nov 3 2023, 4:53 PM
If Data Stays in This Week's Range, The Highs Are In
Friday's weak jobs report and strong bond market reacti...
Fri, Nov 3 2023, 1:11 PM
The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate was over 8% as recently as October 19th. At the start of the present week, things weren't much better a...
Fri, Nov 3 2023, 12:20 PM
There was a lot riding on this morning's jobs report. It was in an ideal position to cast a vote on this week's bullish correction. A big beat was l...
Thu, Nov 2 2023, 3:59 PM
The stratification of rate offerings between lenders is very high due to rapid changes over the past few days and weeks. On average, top tier convent...
Thu, Nov 2 2023, 3:53 PM
Tough Afternoon For Lock vs Float Decisions
Even yesterday, we were already trying to reconcile the size of ...
Thu, Nov 2 2023, 11:20 AM
Bonds improved significantly yesterday after the Treasury refunding announcement, economic data, and Fed press conference. Most reports attribute the...
Wed, Nov 1 2023, 5:30 PM
Powell + Data = Big Bond Rally
When traders/analysts look back to see what was on the calendar when 10yr Tre...
Wed, Nov 1 2023, 5:14 PM
Today was "Fed day" and mortgage rates fell quite a bit. So it must have been due to the Fed announcement, right? Not exactly... The Fed helped, ...
Wed, Nov 1 2023, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding expanded at a solid pace. strong pace in the third quarter. Job gains have ...
Wed, Nov 1 2023, 12:31 PM
Today's the day where economic data and events ramp up significantly. Not only do we have more events on the calendar, but they're also increasingly ...
Tue, Oct 31 2023, 3:21 PM
Coming into the current week, we expected to see a fair amount of volatility. Last week was volatile in its own right, but in a broadly sideways traj...
Tue, Oct 31 2023, 3:20 PM
Placeholder Ahead of Fed and Big Ticket Data
The first two days of the week have had the least to offer in t...
Tue, Oct 31 2023, 9:46 AM
The US bond market has a borderline preoccupation with certain changes in Japanese monetary policy. This is arguably justified at times. Previous tw...
Mon, Oct 30 2023, 3:24 PM
Mortgage rates barely budged today. The average lender was just a hair higher compared to Friday's top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate offerings. I...
Mon, Oct 30 2023, 3:23 PM
First Hurdle Cleared. More to Come
On what has the potential to be a momentous week, the bond market has cle...
Mon, Oct 30 2023, 9:38 AM
The uncommon combination of events and the market movement potential of this week is hard to overstate. Each layer is important in and of itself, but ...
Fri, Oct 27 2023, 5:32 PM
Mortgage rates managed to have a nice, boring Friday with minimal movement. That's a victory considering yesterday saw a decent move lower, but victo...
Fri, Oct 27 2023, 4:15 PM
Boring, Flat Friday Leaves Focus Where it Should Be
It's hard to overstate just how much potential the upcom...
Fri, Oct 27 2023, 12:35 PM
Things have been eventful this week, to say the least, especially when considering the level of volatility relative to the underlying market movers in...
Thu, Oct 26 2023, 4:48 PM
Mortgage rates have been bouncing around by leaps and bounds in a wide, sideways range over the past 2 weeks. The upper boundary of that range happen...
Thu, Oct 26 2023, 4:34 PM
Exciting Times and a Range-Bound Rally
Next week is one of the most exciting and potentially significant wee...
Thu, Oct 26 2023, 12:04 PM
Bonds are in an ongoing consolidation after 10yr yields hit 5% last week. The consolidation cuts both ways and today is a good cut. Yields hit 4.99%...
Wed, Oct 25 2023, 5:58 PM
It's Not So Bad if You Forget The Past 3 Days
Bonds had a somewhat encouraging rally over the past 3 busines...
Wed, Oct 25 2023, 3:12 PM
Just when it looked like something new and different might be happening in the mortgage rate world, the market is quickly back to its old ways. Aft...
Wed, Oct 25 2023, 11:51 AM
Tuesday brought a dose of encouragement for the bond market. It was the third straight day of gains--an uncommon feat in recent months, to be sure! T...
Tue, Oct 24 2023, 4:35 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move much today, but the movement was in a friendly direction at least. The caveat is that this pertains to the average lender....
Tue, Oct 24 2023, 4:15 PM
Encouraged, But Not Convinced
It is certainly encouraging to see a modestly positive day for the bond market...
Tue, Oct 24 2023, 11:53 AM
When the big corner is eventually turned for rates, it will have to start somewhere, so let's talk about whether the current bond rally could be the f...
Mon, Oct 23 2023, 4:51 PM
Mortgage rates began the day in higher territory due to overnight weakness in the bond market. Bonds (like US Treasuries or the MBS that determine mo...
Mon, Oct 23 2023, 4:50 PM
Big Rally, But Not Big Enough to Demand an Interesting Explanation
It is unfortunate that, due to timing and...
Fri, Oct 20 2023, 4:21 PM
Mortgage rates finally broke the 8% ceiling this week after months of gradual upward movement in the 7% range. At the same time, Existing Home Sales f...
Thu, Oct 19 2023, 4:46 PM
There have been some more abrupt rate spikes in the recent past--days where the average mortgage rate has risen by more than an eighth of a percent (t...
Thu, Oct 19 2023, 11:39 AM
This morning is off to what could potentially be described as a "weird" start. If it's not weird, it's at least interesting. Why weird? Bonds ralli...
Wed, Oct 18 2023, 4:54 PM
Our rate index has rapidly grown in popularity and exposure in recent years because it is timely and because it accounts for upfront costs in a way th...
Wed, Oct 18 2023, 4:45 PM
Just Another "Worst Day Since..." Type of Day
In a rising rate environment where long term boundaries have r...
Tue, Oct 17 2023, 4:22 PM
Inflation and economic growth... Regardless of our thoughts on the underlying reasons, these two factors have played a key role in skyrocketing rates...
Tue, Oct 17 2023, 4:04 PM
Strong Retail Sales Data and Logical Consequences
Today's morning commentary may as well be the recap. Very...
Tue, Oct 17 2023, 11:46 AM
In addition to looking at economic data, the Fed also gets an earful from their "contacts" in the community. One would have to assume that those cont...
Mon, Oct 16 2023, 4:22 PM
Last week was mostly good for mortgage rates, even if the goodness was made possible in large part by the badness of the previous week. By Friday, ra...
Fri, Oct 13 2023, 7:26 PM
After hitting the highest levels in decades last week, mortgage rates dropped sharply at the beginning of this week. At first glance, this was a class...
Fri, Oct 13 2023, 4:25 PM
Decent Recovery But MBS Underperform
On Thursday, 10yr yields came close to spiking 20bps, trough to peak, i...
Fri, Oct 13 2023, 12:45 PM
Bonds drifted gradually but consistently intro stronger overnight. We could point to a few events and a few pieces of data (softer Chinese inflation,...
Thu, Oct 12 2023, 4:23 PM
Mortgage rates have enjoyed 2 days of uncommonly big gains. Granted, they come at the expense of horrific events and an exceptionally high starting p...
Thu, Oct 12 2023, 4:13 PM
Bonds Snap Back to Reality on Higher Core Services CPI
Even before this week's rally began, we knew to be on...
Thu, Oct 12 2023, 11:04 AM
After a few days where it's been somewhat challenging to sort through the most relevant market movement considerations (war vs Fed speakers vs technic...
Wed, Oct 11 2023, 4:45 PM
The holiday-shortened week began yesterday with a substantial decline in average mortgage rates. Caveats abound, however. They include things like t...
Wed, Oct 11 2023, 4:44 PM
Why Are Bonds Still Rallying?
Bonds have seen only a few examples of a solid 2-day rally over the past few m...
Wed, Oct 11 2023, 12:07 PM
This morning's only upper tier economic report, The Producer Price Index (PPI), came out a bit hotter than expected with a fairly significant revision...
